What is the Geraldine Weiss dividend yield method?

The Geraldine Weiss method values stocks using their dividend yield history rather than earnings multiples. For any established dividend payer, Weiss identified that the yield oscillates within a characteristic range over time. When the yield approaches its historical high, the stock is undervalued (price is low relative to income). When yield approaches its historical low, the stock is overvalued. Weiss ran the Investment Quality Trends newsletter for nearly 40 years using this method.

What is the DividendVisual quality score?

The quality score (0–100) measures dividend safety and growth. It combines five factors: payout ratio (up to 25 points), dividend growth streak in years (up to 25 points), 5-year dividend CAGR (up to 20 points), current yield relative to the 10-year maximum (up to 15 points), and FCF payout coverage (up to 15 points). Scores of 80+ are Excellent, 60–79 Good, 40–59 Average, below 40 Risky.

How often is the data updated?

Price and dividend data is refreshed daily via a Python pipeline using public market data. The Weiss bands, quality scores, and valuation signals are recalculated each day. Pages are cached for up to one hour, so the data you see reflects at most the previous day's close.

Which stocks does the Weiss method work for?

The method works best for established dividend payers with 15+ years of uninterrupted payment history, stable free cash flow (consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, financials), and a payout ratio below 75%. It does not work for growth stocks with no or minimal dividends, companies with recent dividend cuts, or cyclical businesses where dividends fluctuate with earnings. All 62 stocks on DividendVisual were selected to meet these criteria.

How It Works — The Weiss Dividend Yield Method

Q: How does DividendVisual calculate undervalued and overvalued bands?

DividendVisual uses 10 years of weekly price and dividend data to compute each stock's yield history. The undervalued band is the 90th percentile of that yield history — meaning the stock has only been cheaper 10% of the time over the past decade. The overvalued band is the 10th percentile. These percentile thresholds were chosen to identify historically extreme valuations, not routine fluctuations.

The Core Idea

Conventional valuation metrics — P/E ratios, DCF models, price-to-book — are built on numbers that management can influence. Earnings can be smoothed, restated, or accelerated through accounting choices. The dividend is different: it is cash leaving the company, and for an established blue-chip that has raised its payout for decades, cutting it is not a financial decision — it is a public admission of distress.

Geraldine Weiss recognized that for stable dividend payers, yield fluctuations are driven primarily by price, not by dividend changes. Each company develops a characteristic yield range over time. When yield approaches the historical high, the stock is cheap — not because something broke, but because the market is temporarily pessimistic. When yield approaches the historical low, investors are paying a premium for the same income.

For a deeper look at the history and philosophy behind the method, read The Geraldine Weiss Method Explained.

How the Valuation Bands Are Calculated

For each stock, DividendVisual collects 10 years of weekly price and dividend data and computes the implied dividend yield at each point. This produces ~520 weekly yield observations per ticker. From this distribution, we derive two thresholds:

Undervalued Band

90th percentile of 10-year yield

The stock has only been cheaper 10% of the time over the past decade. When the current yield exceeds this threshold, the signal is Undervalued.

Overvalued Band

10th percentile of 10-year yield

The stock has been more expensive 90% of the time. When the current yield falls below this threshold, the signal is Overvalued.

Between the two bands, the signal is Fair Value — not a compelling entry or an urgent reason to exit. The median yield (50th percentile) over the 10-year window serves as the best proxy for fair value price.

Why the Chart Looks Like Steps, Not Curves

The valuation bands shift each time the company raises its dividend. A quarterly raise — say, from $0.44 to $0.46 per share — shifts both thresholds upward instantly. The band then holds steady until the next raise, creating the characteristic staircase pattern visible in every Weiss chart. This staircase is the fingerprint of a genuine dividend-growth business.

The Quality Score (0–100)

A Weiss undervalue signal alone is not sufficient. A stock can have a high historical yield because the dividend was nearly cut — which would invalidate the entire historical range. The quality score filters for dividend safety and consistency before the valuation signal becomes actionable.

Factor	Max pts	Scoring tiers
Payout Ratio	25	<40% (25 pts) · <55% (20) · <70% (12) · <85% (5) · ≥85% (0)
Dividend Streak	25	≥25 yrs (25 pts) · ≥10 yrs (20) · ≥5 yrs (12) · ≥2 yrs (5) · <2 yrs (0)
5-Year Dividend CAGR	20	≥8% (20 pts) · ≥5% (15) · ≥2% (8) · >0% (3) · ≤0% (0)
Yield vs. 10Y Max	15	≥85% of max (15 pts) · ≥70% (10) · ≥50% (5) · <50% (0)
FCF Payout Coverage	15	<50% (15 pts) · <70% (10) · <85% (5) · ≥85% (0)
Total	100	Excellent ≥80 · Good 60–79 · Average 40–59 · Risky <40

Stocks scoring 65+ with an Undervalued Weiss signal represent the strongest combination: historically cheap price and a well-supported, growing dividend. The Opportunities page surfaces exactly this set.

The DRIP Calculator — Assumptions

The Dividend Reinvestment (DRIP) calculator on each ticker page projects the compounding effect of reinvesting dividends over time. Key assumptions:

Share price is held constant at the current price. The model isolates dividend compounding, not capital appreciation.
Dividends are reinvested annually at the same fixed share price.
Dividend CAGR is the user-adjustable input, defaulting to the stock's actual 5-year CAGR.
No taxes, fees, or fractional share restrictions are modeled.

The output — yield on cost and annual income at year N — is a demonstration of compounding mechanics, not a return forecast. In practice, share price changes affect both total return and reinvestment efficiency.

Which Stocks Qualify

Not every dividend payer is a valid Weiss candidate. DividendVisual selects stocks that meet the following criteria:

15+ years of uninterrupted dividend payments — enough history to build a reliable yield range.
Stable, predictable free cash flow — consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, financials, and industrials dominate the universe for this reason.
Payout ratio generally below 75% — leaves a buffer for earnings volatility without forcing a cut.
No recent dividend cuts or freezes — a cut resets the historical range and makes prior signals meaningless.

The current universe covers 62 stocks including all Dividend Kings, most Dividend Aristocrats, and selected REITs and utilities that meet the eligibility bar.

What the Method Cannot Do

The Weiss method is not a short-term timing tool. A stock can sit in undervalued territory for months while the market ignores it. The signal reflects a probabilistic edge over a full cycle, not a near-term price catalyst.

The method also breaks down when the dividend itself is at risk. A stock yielding 7% that then cuts to 3.5% has not provided a Weiss entry opportunity — it has provided a loss. The quality score is designed to filter these cases, but no quantitative screen is perfect. Always verify dividend coverage before acting on a valuation signal.